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Industrywide retail slump raises fears over upcoming back-to-school season
Friday, July 10, 2009

Rain and escalating job worries dampened shoppers' appetite for summer staples such as shorts and dresses more than expected in June, increasing concerns about the back-to-school shopping season.

Retailers in all sectors reported weak same-store sales yesterday, but mall-based clothing stores suffered most in June compared with a year earlier, while some discounters scraped by.

Even low-priced Costco Wholesale Corp. saw same-store sales decline from last year, when federal stimulus checks helped business. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. no longer reports same-store sales each month.

Same-store sales -- sales at stores open at least a year -- are considered a key indicator of a retailer's health.

"Consumers are under severe pressure on the job front, so discretionary spending is just not happening, "said Ken Perkins, president of retail consulting firm Retail Metrics LLC.

"This is not setting up well for the back-to-school season."

South Side-based teen clothier American Eagle Outfitters said same-store sales dropped 11 percent in June, worse than Wall Street's expectations, but the retailer maintained its second-quarter earnings guidance. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters predicted a milder 7.9 percent same-store sales drop.

American Eagle's total sales for the five weeks that ended July 4 fell 4 percent to $246.1 million.

For the year-to-date period, same-store sales fell 10 percent, while total sales lost 4 percent to $1.05 billion.

Other mall stores saw declines in sales too, including Children's Place and Limited Brands (both down 12 percent), Wet Seal (down 11.1 percent), Gap (down 10 percent) and Hot Topic (down 7.9 percent).

The International Council of Shopping Centers-Goldman Sachs same-store sales tally for June was down 5.1 percent from June 2008, worse than the latest forecast for a 4.5 percent decline. The results were slightly below the sluggish average pace of 4.4 percent seen since February, the start of retailers' fiscal year.

A factor depressing results was the weather. Many areas from the West Coast to the Northeast received two or three times their normal June precipitation last month, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center.

But financial worries are clearly discouraging shoppers. While the number of newly laid-off workers filing initial claims for jobless benefits last week fell to the lowest level since early January, that was largely due to changes in the timing of auto industry layoffs.

Continuing claims, meanwhile, unexpectedly jumped to a record high. And jobs remain scarce. The latest federal report, which showed wages shrinking and higher job losses than expected in June, is increasing concerns about consumers' ability to spend in the months ahead.

Merchants are relying more now on shoppers' paychecks to fuel purchases because consumers' two other key sources of funding -- credit cards and home equity loans -- have shrunk. But, seeing their earnings dwindle, shoppers are continuing to seek 70 percent discounts.

Job worries caused consumer confidence, as measured by the nonprofit Conference Board, to drop in June, reversing a three-month upward trend fueled by a stock market rally that also is fizzling.

Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, has benefited from the recession as shoppers scour for deals and focus on necessities. The Bentonville, Ark.-based company stopped releasing monthly data after its report for April.

But discounter Target Corp., which has been stumbling because of its reliance on nonessentials like trendy jeans and towels, reported a 6.2 percent decline in same-store sales for June. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected a 5.6 percent drop at the Minneapolis-based retailer. But Target expects to meet or exceed analyst expectations for second-quarter profit due in part to spending cuts.

Costco said yesterday that its June same-store sales dropped 6 percent, meeting Wall Street's expectations. The company said in a recorded message that some of its strongest categories included food products, such as deli items, frozen food and candy. It experienced weakness in nonfood, discretionary categories.

TJX reported a 4 percent gain in same-store sales, exceeding analysts' average forecast of a 0.6 percent decline. TJX raised its second-quarter earnings outlook.

Among department stores, J.C. Penney Co. posted an 8.2 percent drop in same-store sales but beat Wall Street's estimate of a 9.3 percent decline. The chain also narrowed its loss estimate for the second quarter. Macy's Inc.'s 8.9 percent drop was slightly smaller drop than analysts expected.

First published on July 10, 2009 at 12:00 am