EmailEmail
PrintPrint
Bob Smizik
Optimism at Pitt rarely rewarded
Saturday, October 11, 2008
Pitt's victory against South Florida last week was so impressive it had the power to virtually obliterate all that had come before it. In the case of the Panthers, first impressions meant nothing; last impressions meant everything.

Before South Florida, the Panthers were the textbook definition of mediocrity. They were 3-1, which sounds good but wasn't. The loss was to Bowling Green, a team that since has lost three of four. All of the wins were struggles, with the average margin of victory seven points, and they came against below-average competition: Buffalo, Iowa and Syracuse -- teams that are a combined 6-10.

But those first four games left little impression on the sporting public and media once the Panthers beat 10th-ranked South Florida. The victory vaulted them back into the top 25, and there is genuine reason for optimism about the remainder of the season. Only the most pessimistic would deny the fact that the Panthers are looking at their first bowl game in four years and the opportunity is there to win the Big East Conference championship.

It's all there in front of them. They've already beaten -- on the road -- the team that was regarded as the best in the league. Beyond that, it's a down year for the Big East. It's not an easy path for the Panthers, but there isn't an opponent that looks unbeatable.

It's possible, even probable, Pitt could be favored in all of its remaining league games.

But are they up to this challenge? Not just during the Dave Wannstedt era, which is in its fourth season, but the past 25-year history of the program is rich with blown opportunities. So many times Pitt has looked ready to advance, ready to take that next big step but instead has faltered.

Pitt has a chance to raise its record to 6-1 with upcoming games at Navy and against Rutgers at Heinz Field.

The Pitt defense was unprepared and embarrassed by Navy last season in a 48-45 double overtime loss in which the Midshipmen ran for 331 yards. The same offensive system is in place this season, but with a new coach. Pitt should have learned from '07 and be ready to handle Navy.

The Rutgers program is falling apart. Two years ago, coach Greg Schiano could have had any job in the country. Today, he's worried about holding on to the one he has. The Scarlet Knights are 1-4 with their only win against Morgan State.

This is just the kind of game Pitt has lost so often in the past. Wannstedt can't let it happen this year.

The remainder of the schedule -- at Notre Dame, Louisville, at Cincinnati, West Virginia and at Connecticut is not easy. Pitt can afford a loss in its non-league game at Notre Dame. For the Panthers' purposes, it's not where they are in the rankings, it's where they are in the Big East standings.

They are fortunate in league play that West Virginia appears to be definitely off from its previous seasons and misses the discipline and offensive ingenuity of coach Rich Rodriguez. Even with All-American quarterback Pat White returning, the once-mighty Mountaineers offense is averaging only 17 points a game against Division I opponents.

Although Connecticut quarterback Tyler Lorenzen, who broke his foot Sept. 26, figures to be back for Pitt in December, he'll miss four or five games and that could be costly in league play for the Huskies. In their first game without Lorenzen, the previously unbeaten Huskies lost to North Carolina, 38-12, as backup quarterback Zach Frazier threw three interceptions.

It's there for Pitt, but, of course, it has been there before.

Just go back to '06. The Panthers were 6-1. No one could have thought they wouldn't go to a bowl game. After all, that would require losing their five remaining games -- which they did.

In '04, Pitt was 5-2 and lost to a 4-4 Syracuse team, which was beaten the next week by Temple.

Even going back to the glory years, when Pitt had three consecutive 11-1 seasons, there is a history of missed opportunity. In two of those seasons, 1978 and '79, the Panthers lost to lesser teams, North Carolina and Florida State.

Sure, all teams suffer upsets. But at Pitt, it seems to happen more than at other places. Pitt too often is ready to step through the door and too often stumbles.

The guess here is Wannstedt will bring this team home with nine or 10 wins and a Big East title. But no one should be surprised if he doesn't. After all, it's Pitt.

Bob Smizik can be reached at bsmizik@post-gazette.com. More articles by this author
First published on October 11, 2008 at 12:25 am