A 10 percent boost in graduation rates at Pennsylvania high schools could lead to the prevention of as many as 150 murders in the state every year, claims a report released yesterday.

The report comes from Fight Crime: Invest in Kids, a Harrisburg-based advocacy group that is calling for a huge investment in prekindergarten programs that prepare young children for school and, according to statistics, increase their chances of reaching graduation.

"If we don't pay now, we'll pay later with increased crime," Allegheny County Sheriff William P. Mullen said yesterday during a news conference at Westinghouse High School in Homewood.

He was joined by Pittsburgh Public Schools Superintendent Mark Roosevelt, Senior Superior Court Judge Robert E. Colville and Pittsburgh police Cmdr. Larry Ross.

The Fight Crime report bases its numbers on a 2004 study from two University of California at Berkeley economists, who looked at the relationship between graduation rates and crime.

They found that a 10 percent increase in graduation rates corresponded with a 20 percent reduction in murder and assault rates.

Those percentages, if applied to Pennsylvania's 2006 crime statistics from the FBI, predict 150 fewer murders statewide, including 75 fewer for Philadelphia and 13 for Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh also would see 320 fewer assaults, while the state as a whole would see a decline of 5,900 assaults.

High school dropouts are more than eight times more likely than graduates to end up in jail, the Fight Crime report says.

In Pennsylvania, about 20 percent of high school students don't graduate on time.

"The results from not finishing high school are profound," said Bruce R. Clash, Fight Crime's state director.

Pennsylvania's current budget includes $86 million for Pre-K Counts, which will serve 12,000 3- and 4-year-olds.

Mr. Clash praised the program, now in its second year. But he said the state would have to double its spending on prekindergarten education to meet demand from school districts and other providers.

Pittsburgh already serves 2,500 students in 101 early childhood programs, Mr. Roosevelt said.