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Early Returns Politics and the Pennsylvania Primary, compiled by Bill Toland
The day after the day after
April 24, 2008
Thursday, April 24, 2008

Hillary gets a campaign-saving infusion of cash following her victory in Pennsylvania:

"Hillary Rodham Clinton raised $10 million in the 24 hours after winning the Pennsylvania primary, aided by contributions from 80,000 new donors, her campaign said Thursday. The $10 million came from a total of 100,000 donors, spokesman Mo Elleithee said."

That's a lot of bread. Don't go blowing it on the pony races now.

... Will Pennsylvania's six remaining uncommitted superdelegates tilt for Clinton, or Obama?

... Whomever the superdelegates support, party leaders may force them to make up their mind in the next two months, to avoid the spectacle of a brokered convention:

"Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said Thursday that he may try to force undecided superdelegates to make their decisions in the Democratic presidential race if it stretches into June. Reid said he would consider writing a joint letter with Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) demanding that superdelegates make their endorsements public. 'The three of us, we may write a joint letter [to superdelegates],' said Reid. 'We might do individual letters.'"

We might use office stationary, or we might pick up something more decorative from Hallmark. So many options!

... A few weeks ago, media critics said journalists were perpetuating a sham of a race since, mathematically, there was almost no way Hillary could win this thing without destroying the party. But now?

The door is ajar, just a bit, says The Fix:

"The overarching question facing party activists and elected officials (read: superdelegates) over the next five weeks is whether or not Clinton has a legitimate and plausible path to the nomination. The answer to that question is clearly: Yes. To be clear: The most likely scenario is that Obama's lead in pledged delegates and the popular vote continues as the two Democrats split up the remaining nine contests. But a path does exist for Clinton."

To take a walk down that path, click here.

... Did Hillary's PA win vault her into the popular vote lead? Kind of -- if you count her votes in Florida and Michigan, where Obama's name had been taken off the ballot:

"Sen. Hillary Clinton is arguing that she is ahead of rival Sen. Barack Obama when it comes to the popular vote. [Not] so fast, says Obama's campaign. Clinton's count includes her wins in Michigan and Florida, but the Democratic presidential candidates agreed not to campaign in those states because they violated party rules by scheduling their contests too early. Obama didn't even have his name on the Michigan ballot, so he received no votes from that contest. 'We think that, in the end, if we end up having won twice as many states and having the most votes, then we should be the nominee,' Obama said. If Michigan and Florida are counted, Clinton is ahead by 100,000 votes -- 15.1 million to Obama's 15 million. Without those states, Obama has a 500,000 vote lead, 14.4 million to 13.9 million."

Obama-rama

"Doug Wilder, the nation's first elected black governor, has both encouragement and a warning for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. The encouragement is that Obama is approaching the race issue the right way, and the nation is ready to elect a black president. The warning is that it may not be as ready as polls suggest. 'Let's not kid ourselves again, the issue of race will not disappear; but I don't think it will predominate,' the former Virginia governor said in an interview at his office in Richmond, where he is now mayor. At the same time, he said, even if Obama is the nominee and heads into the fall with an apparent lead, the election 'will be closer than any polls will suggest.' [In] 1989, Wilder won the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in the overwhelmingly white onetime cradle of the Confederacy. Polls taken just before Election Day had put him ahead of his Republican competitor by as much as 10 percentage points; he won by less than half a percentage point."

People say one thing to pollsters, do another thing in the privacy of the voting booth. So does the "Bradley effect" really exist? That is, are white folk trigger-shy about voting for a black person, even after they've told a pollster that they were going to? Is it because they don't want to look racist? Because it's the PC thing?

"Prominent Democrats only whisper when they compare Obama's experience, the first African American with a serious chance to be president, with what happened to Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley a quarter-century ago. In 1982, exit polls showed Bradley, who was black, ahead in the race for governor of California, but he ultimately lost to Republican George Deukmejian. Pollster John Zogby (who predicted Clinton's double-digit win Tuesday) said what practicing Democrats would not: 'I think voters face-to-face are not willing to say they would oppose an African American candidate.' [If ]there really is a Bradley effect in 2008, Zogby sees November peril for Obama in blue states. John McCain could win not only in Pennsylvania but also in Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota, and he can retain Ohio for the Republicans."

RedState explores the same issue here.

... when is a 10-point win not a 10-point win? When it's more like 9 points, says Chris Schultz:

"Since when does 9.2 equal 10 points??!! I just listened to Jon Delano and Marty Griffin discussing Hillary Clinton "cleaning Obama's clock" in yesterday's Pennsylvania primary. My question to them - can we get some perspective here? Yes, Obama outspent Clinton by 3 to 1, but he had a 22 point deficit when he started to campaign here in PA a little over a month ago. Obama ended up losing by LESS than 10% in a state where Clinton had the support of the governor and his party establishment."

That statwide margin could shrink a bit more if the 40 districts in Philadelphia that still haven't submitted their election results tilt heavily for Obama. (In Allegheny County, he lost by 8.8 percentage points.)

... Hillary's victory here won't help much if Obama keeps rolling out a super delegate every other day:

"Oregon Rep. David Wu, one of Oregon's 12 Democratic superdelegates, announced Thursday that he'd back Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, citing Obama's stand against the Iraq war 'from the very beginning.'"

Bush v. McCain

I wonder if John McCain is on the wedding invite list?

"Speaking with CNN's Larry King Wednesday night, Jenna Bush said she hasn't decided yet who she will vote for in November. 'I don't know,' Jenna Bush, daughter of President and Mrs. Bush, said when asked if she will back McCain. 'Of course [I am open]. I mean, who isn't open to learning about the candidates and I'm sure that everybody's like that,' she added. Though the younger Bush conceded she has 'been too busy with books to really pay that much attention.' Meanwhile, mother Laura Bush was quick to affirm that she will be voting for the Republican candidate in the fall. The two appeared on the show to discuss Jenna Bush's upcoming wedding next month. '[It will be] outdoors, very small wedding, you know, very small, all relatives, our families, really, kind of big,' Jenna Bush said."

I guess Early Returns won't make the cut, either.

... Speaking of McCain, he wants to make a clean break from Bush on at least one issue -- Hurricane Katrina response.

"Senator John McCain took direct aim at the Bush administration on Thursday as he stood in the lower Ninth Ward of New Orleans, the area hardest hit by Hurricane Katrina in 2005, and declared that 'never again will a disaster of this nature be handled in the terrible and disgraceful way that it was handled.'"

... McCain takes the high road (publicly) by saying: North Carolina -- tear down this wall!

I mean ad. Tear down this ad:

"Republican John McCain yesterday asked the North Carolina GOP not to run a television ad that brings up the former pastor of Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama. North Carolina Republican Party officials insisted the ad would run as planned despite McCain's request. The ad opens with a photo of Obama and the Rev. Jeremiah Wright together and a clip of Wright, whose incendiary comments about race have bedeviled Obama. 'He's just too extreme for North Carolina,' the narrator says in the 30-second spot. 'We asked them not to run it,' McCain told reporters traveling with him in Kentucky. 'I'm sending them an e-mail as we speak asking them to take it down.'"

... "Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean is calling out John McCain on the controversial North Carolina GOP ad which, in one fell swoop, uses Barack Obama's controversial ex-minister, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, to try to sully two Democratic candidates in the state. Dean is framing McCain's suggestion that the North Carolina Republicans do not air the ad as a test of his leadership, basically saying that if he can't get party minions to take his advice, how can he run the country?"

Indeed. If you can't control your peanut butter, how can you control your life?

First published on April 24, 2008 at 3:08 pm